Salesforce: Online holiday shoppers wait for Cyber Week

Holiday shopping is gaining momentum, but consumers are still waiting for the best deals.

That's according to the Salesforce Shopping Index, which found that early online holiday sales (Oct. 1 – Nov. 14) are down 2% in the U.S. and up 3% globally year over year (YoY). Salesforce says the sluggish growth indicates consumers are still searching for the biggest and best deals of the season. 

Salesforce previously predicted 2023 online holiday sales (Nov. 1 – Dec. 31) will total $1.19 trillion, up 4% from $1.14 trillion Salesforce tracked during the 2022 holiday season. That growth figure includes a 1% YoY increase in the U.S. and 4% YoY increase globally.

Globally, online traffic (+17%), product views (+17%), and sales (+19%) were up by double digits during the first two weeks of November 2023 compared to the same period in October 2023. U.S. online traffic (+20%), product views (+22%), and sales (+25%) were also up by double digits.

Salesforce Shopping Index early holiday indicators (Oct. 1–Nov. 14): 

• Digital traffic was up 5% globally and 5% in the U.S. YoY as consumers started their searches for holiday gifts in early fall.
• Consumers browsed, but held off on buying in the early holiday season. Product views grew by 6% globally and 5% in the U.S., while sales either declined or just slightly increased.
• Sixteen percent of orders globally and 14% of U.S. orders were influenced by AI since the start of October – through avenues such as AI-powered product recommendations, targeted promotions, and product descriptions.
• The use of buy now, pay later (BNPL) solutions grew 5% globally and 7% in U.S, while mobile wallet channels grew at a substantial rate of 65% globally and 53% in the U.S.
• Email marketing messages grew 8% globally YoY. 

Cyber Week 2023 predictions

• Similar to 2022, Cyber Week is anticipated to account for over 25% of all holiday purchases in 2023. Salesforce analysis indicates that price-conscious consumers are waiting to see what deals come their way on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.
• Salesforce predicts the share of orders influenced by AI will likely increase to 18% during Cyber Week, representing global online sales reaching an estimated $53 billion.
• Global discounts are likely to reach 29% globally and 30% for the U.S., on par with pre-pandemic discount levels, according to Salesforce.
• “Consumers are taking control of their budgets and seeking value as they shop this holiday,” said Rob Garf, VP and GM of retail, Salesforce. “With a quarter of all holiday sales expected to take place during Cyber Week, this will be the time for retailers to pull out all the stops – including promotions, loyalty rewards, financing options, and personalized product recommendations to drive shoppers to buy.”

[Read more: Exclusive Q&A: Rob Garf, VP and GM of retail, Salesforce]

“Consumers are taking control of their budgets and seeking value as they shop this holiday,” said Rob Garf, VP and GM of retail, Salesforce. “With a quarter of all holiday sales expected to take place during Cyber Week, this will be the time for retailers to pull out all the stops – including promotions, loyalty rewards, financing options, and personalized product recommendations to drive shoppers to buy.”

Utilizing its Commerce Cloud and Marketing Cloud platforms, Salesforce analyzed aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 64 countries, with a focus on 12 key markets: the U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia/New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand) and the Nordics. Prediction data is from proprietary Salesforce research.